Slovenian Economic Mirror 1/2025: Economic sentiment remained low at the end of the year; sentiment indicators for the euro area and Germany declined in the fourth quarter
Sentiment indicators for the euro area and Germany deteriorated in the fourth quarter of 2024. In Slovenia, activity in most sectors was higher year-on-year in the first ten to eleven months of 2024, and activity in construction continued to lag behind. Real exports of goods have stagnated since the slump in September,…
Charts of the week from 13 to 17 January 2025: activity in construction, number of persons in employment, current account of the balance of payments, road and rail freight transport
After declining since the beginning of 2024, construction activity saw a significant increase in November 2024, although…
Charts of the week from 6 to 10 January: unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices, exports and imports of goods and production volume in manufacturing
The number of unemployed fell slightly in December 2024 (seasonally adjusted) and was down by 2.7% year-on-year. In…
Charts of the week from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025: consumer prices, government bonds, real estate, turnover in trade and other charts
In December 2024, year-on-year growth in consumer prices (1.9%) was less than half the rate recorded at the end of 2023.…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in the spring (2.4%). We expect GDP growth to pick up again in the next two years. Inflation is expected to remain low until November, before rising towards the end of the year and the beginning of next year due to the low base effect and the expiry of measures to curb high energy prices; we estimate that it will approach 2% again in 2026.
Labour market
Employment is at a record high, while unemployment is at a historic low. Given the already high level of employment, growth will be dampened by severe labour shortages over the next two years. The tight labour market will be somewhat alleviated by measures to facilitate the attraction and recruitment of foreign labour, so that growth will continue to be supported mainly by the hiring of foreign nationals.
International trade
Exports of goods are expected to increase again this year (after a decline last year), while exports of services will decline. Growth will be dampened by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. Amid strong growth in domestic consumption, import growth is expected to significantly outpace export growth, resulting in a negative foreign trade balance. Over the next two years, gradually higher growth in foreign demand will be followed by higher growth in exports and related activities.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.