According to the seasonally adjusted data, the monthly decline in the number of registered unemployed in March (0.9%) was similar to February. According to original data, 46,877 people were unemployed at the end of March, 6.9% less than a year ago. Amid labour shortages, the number of long-term unemployed (more than 1 year) fell by 14.9% year-on-year at the end of March, while the number of unemployed over 50 fell by 9%.

The nominal value of fiscally verified invoices between 17 and 30 March 2024 was 8% higher year-on-year. The stronger growth compared to previous periods was due to the Easter holidays, which were a week earlier this year than last year and usually have a strong impact on spending dynamics in this period. Year-on-year turnover growth in retail trade, which accounted for almost half of the total value of fiscally verified invoices, almost doubled, reaching 11%. Growth of turnover in the sale of motor vehicles was high (13%), while turnover in wholesale trade remained lower year-on-year. Year-on-year turnover growth in accommodation and food service activities, certain creative, arts, entertainment, and sports services, and betting and gambling also accelerated (overall growth in accommodation and food service activities and in other service activities was 13%, compared with an average of 8% in the previous 14-day periods of the year).

Electricity consumption in March was 8% lower year-on-year. On a high base of last year, the year-on-year decline was, in our view, due to both lower industrial and lower household consumption. The latter is also related to the limited operation of ski resorts and the nearby tourist accommodations, which are part of household consumption. Among Slovenia’s main trading partners, lower consumption compared to March 2023 was recorded by Austria (-5%), Croatia (–2%) and Germany (-2%), while consumption was higher year-on-year in Italy (1%) and France (3%).

Yields to maturity of euro area government bonds decreased slightly in the first quarter of this year as inflationary pressure gradually eased. The yield to maturity of the Slovenian bond fell by 25 basis points compared to the previous quarter to 3.16%, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2022. The spread to the German bond, which, at 84 basis points, was the lowest since the beginning of 2022, also narrowed slightly. 

In February, real exports and imports of goods continued to decline month-on-month; exports were higher year-on-year, while imports remained lower. As in previous months, the external trade movements were primarily influenced by the slow economic recovery in Slovenia’s main EU trading partners. Real exports fell by 0.6% in February, due to lower exports of most main product groups, with the exception of motor vehicles exports, which rose for the third month in a row (seasonally adjusted). Real imports fell by 0.5%, with imports of intermediate and consumer goods declining, particularly from non-EU countries (seasonally adjusted). In the first two months, exports (to EU and non-EU countries) was 2.4% higher compared to the same period last year, while the year-on-year decline in imports narrowed (to -1.8%). Sentiment in export-oriented activities improved slightly in March, but export orders remained at a very low level.

Total real turnover remained at the level of December 2023, while it was 6.3% higher year-on-year in real terms. After two months of growth, turnover fell in administrative and support service activities, but with continued growth in employment services. Turnover also declined in the accommodation and food service activities, mainly due to a fall in turnover in the accommodation sector. A decline was recorded also in transportation and storage, this time mainly in warehousing and storage. After a decline in December, turnover growth was the highest in information and communication. The strong growth came mainly from the computer services, where turnover increased primarily on the domestic market. Turnover growth continued in professional and technical activities, with robust growth in architectural and engineering services. Total turnover in market services rose by 6.3% year-on-year in real terms in January, which can be attributed to growth in all market services with the exception of real estate activities.