Charts of the Week


Charts of the Week

Charts of the week from 31 March to 4 April 2025: consumer prices, unemployment, exports and imports of goods and other charts

In March, year-on-year inflation rose, returning to the level seen at the beginning of the year (2%), primarily due to higher electricity prices following the expiration of certain government measures. The monthly increase in electricity prices (16.5%) was dampened by the transition to the low season for network charge calculation (the exemption from the RES and CHP contribution was extended). The number of unemployed persons declined slightly in March (seasonally adjusted), falling by 2.2% year-on-year, though at a slower pace than in previous months. Real exports and imports of goods (seasonally adjusted), which have fluctuated significantly in recent months, decreased month-on-month in February. However, both remained higher year-on-year in the first two months (exports up 2.0% and imports up 1.2%). After increasing in the fourth quarter of last year, total real turnover in market services declined in January and was also lower year-on-year. Yields to maturity of euro area government bonds rose in the first quarter of this year.
 

Year-on-year growth in consumer prices increased by 0.4 p.p in March compared to February, returning to the level seen at the beginning of the year (2%). The largest contributor to the higher year-on-year inflation this time was the increase in electricity prices, which rose by 16.5% month-on-month. This was due to the expiry of a temporary partial reduction in electricity network charges. The monthly increase was dampened by the transition to the low season for network charge calculation (the exemption from the RES and CHP contribution was also extended). Year-on-year price growth also slightly strengthened in the food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.5%) and semi-durable goods (2.2%) groups. In the latter, above-average seasonal price increases were recorded in the clothing and footwear group. Service price growth also increased slightly (3.4%). On the other hand, the decline in durable goods prices (-0.8%) intensified slightly compared to the first two months of this year. The highest year-on-year price increase was recorded in the health group (5.4%), with more than half of this growth resulting from a 2.8% monthly increase in March.

 

In March, the number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) declined slightly by 0.2%. According to original data, 45,851 people were unemployed at the end of March, 5% fewer than at the end of February. Year-on-year, unemployment was 2.2% lower, though the decline was slightly smaller than in previous months. Amid persistent labour shortages and retirement of older employees, the numbers of long-term unemployed (those unemployed for more than one year) and of unemployed over 55 fell year-on-year at the end of March, by 9.9% and 11.5% respectively. In contrast, youth unemployment (ages 15–29) increased year-on-year (by 4.5%) for the sixth month in a row.

 

Real exports and imports of goods declined month-on-month in February but remained higher year-on-year in the first two months of this year. In recent months, real exports and imports have continued to fluctuate significantly. After growing in January, real exports fell by 3.2% month-on-month in February, due to lower exports of most main product groups, particularly motor vehicles, while pharmaceutical exports were the only group to increase (seasonally adjusted). Real imports declined by 9.4%, with decreases across all product groups, especially consumer goods (seasonally adjusted). Compared to the same period last year, exports increased by 2.0% and imports by 1.2% in the first two months, though year-on-year export growth slowed significantly in February, while imports even declined. 
As in previous months, sentiment in export-oriented activities remained very low in March.  

 

In January, total real turnover in market services declined both month-on-month and year-on-year. Following growth in the fourth quarter of last year, turnover fell by 2.5% (seasonally adjusted) in January, due to declines in most activities. After strengthening in the second half of last year, the largest decline in turnover was recorded in accommodation and food service activities. Turnover also fell significantly in administrative and support service activities (particularly in employment agencies), with the negative trend continuing since the second half of last year. After rising in the second half of last year, turnover also fell in transportation and storage, particularly in storage. In information and communication, turnover decreased slightly after a relatively strong increase in the fourth quarter of last year, although sales of computer services increased both in domestic and foreign markets. After growth in the fourth quarter, turnover growth continued or even accelerated only in professional and technical activities. Total real turnover in market services was 1.6% lower year-on-year in January. Real estate activities, administrative and support service activities, and information and communication fell short of the figures recorded in the same month of 2024.

 

Yields to maturity of euro area government bonds rose in the first quarter of this year. Yields rose following the announcement of a more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, which also affected bond yields in other countries. The ECB, meanwhile, cut key interest rates twice during this period as inflationary pressures eased. Quarter-on-quarter, the yield to maturity of the Slovenian government bond increased by 15 basis points, reaching 3.13%. However, the spread to the German bond decreased by 17 basis points, to 55 basis points.