Charts of the Week
Charts of the week from 23 to 27 September 2024: economic sentiment, turnover in trade and real estate
After improving in August, economic sentiment deteriorated slightly in September in all activities with the exception of services; it remained better year-on-year. Real turnover in trade rose in July, most significantly in the sales of motor vehicles, but also in the sales of food and non-food products; it was also higher year-on-year. Amid a further decline in the volume of sales, year-on-year growth in dwelling prices remained relatively strong in the second quarter.
Economic sentiment, September 2024
Following an improvement in August, economic sentiment deteriorated slightly in September, though it remained higher year-on-year. The monthly decline in the economic sentiment indicator was driven by lower confidence among consumers and in all activities, with the exception of services. The economic climate indicator improved compared to September last year. Confidence in retail trade and construction declined, with construction showing the largest year-on-year drop (in this activity, indicators for overall order levels and employment expectations fell both month-on-month and year-on-year). In contrast, confidence indicators in other activities and among consumers were higher than a year ago.
Turnover in trade, July–August 2024
Real turnover in the trade sector rose in July and, according to preliminary data, again in August; it was also higher year-on-year. Following declines in the first two quarters, turnover in the sales of motor vehicles rebounded strongly in July (and in August, according to provisional SURS data), rising by 8% year-on-year in the first seven months. Turnover in wholesale trade continued to grow, increasing by 2% year-on-year in the first seven months. After stagnating in the first half of the year, retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased in July (and in August, according to preliminary SURS data) and was already 2% higher year-on-year in the first seven months. Retail sales of non-food products also rose, though it remained largely unchanged year-on-year. Among non-food items, after robust growth in 2021 and 2022, sales of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and computer and telecommunications equipment declined for the second year in a row, while sales of household appliances and audio and video equipment increased by 11%.
Real estate, Q2 2024
Amid a further decline in the volume of sales, year-on-year growth in dwelling prices remained relatively strong in the second quarter. After price growth halved last year (to 7.2% on average), prices in Q2 2024 were 6.7% higher compared to the same quarter in 2023, and 2.2% higher compared to the first quarter of this year. Prices of existing dwellings, where the number of transactions declined significantly in the last two years, were 6.1% higher year-on-year. Year-on-year growth in newly built dwellings was even stronger (15.4%). The number of transactions in this segment, which represents only a small part of total sales (4%), fell sharply year-on-year (by more than a half), after being relatively high in 2023 (almost 50% higher than in 2022 and at the highest level since 2018).