Charts of the Week


Charts of the Week

Charts of the week from 2 to 6 September 2024: unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices, exports and imports of goods

According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of registered unemployed continued to decline month-on-month in August. The nominal value of fiscally verified invoices increased by 6% year-on-year in August, similar to the growth observed in July. Year-on-year growth in trade has nearly halved compared to the previous month, while accommodation and food service activities have recovered strongly after last year's flood-related revenue losses. In July, goods exports rose month-on-month, with significant growth in exports to non-EU countries, while exports to the EU, Slovenia's primary export market, declined. Goods imports also fell in July, reaching their lowest level since September last year. In the first seven months, both exports and imports of goods were higher year-on-year (by 2.4% and 2.7% respectively). 
 

The month-on-month decline in the number of registered unemployed (seasonally adjusted) continued in August. The decline was similar to that in previous months (-0.6%, seasonally adjusted). According to original data, 44,468 people were unemployed at the end of August, 0.2% more than at the end of July. This largely reflects seasonal trends related to a higher inflow into unemployment due to expiry of fixed-term employment contracts. Year-on-year, unemployment was down 6.2% in August. Amid labour shortages, the number of long-term unemployed (more than one year) and the number of unemployed over 50 fell year-on-year at the end of August, by 13.5% and 9.7% respectively. In the first eight months, just over 1% of the unemployed moved to inactivity or retirement each month, a trend consistent with previous years, contributing to the overall decline in unemployment.

 

The nominal value of fiscally verified invoices was 6% higher year-on-year in August. Compared to July, when overall year-on-year growth was similar, turnover growth in trade almost halved (to 4%). Turnover growth in retail trade was relatively high at 7%, with this segment accounting for nearly half of the total value of fiscally verified invoices. Year-on-year turnover growth in the sale of motor vehicles more than halved (7%), while turnover in wholesale trade remained lower year-on-year. Year-on-year turnover growth in other service activities was similar to July (12%), while it increased from 4% to 15% in accommodation and food service activities, which is also related to the loss of income caused by last year's floods. 

 

Goods exports rose month-on-month in July and imports fell after recording an increase in June (seasonally adjusted); total exports and imports were higher than a year ago; sentiment in export-oriented industries remained at a very low level. The growth in real exports in July was driven by a significant increase in exports to non-EU countries, which account for only a quarter of total exports. Exports to these countries have shown significant fluctuations in recent months (June -6.3%, July +10%). Exports to EU countries have declined. Broken down by product groups, the largest increases in exports were seen in exports of machinery and equipment (excluding vehicles), chemicals and pharmaceutical products. Real imports fell in July and reached their lowest level since September last year. Following an increase in the previous month, imports of intermediate goods in particular (all seasonally adjusted) fell significantly. 
Compared to the same period last year, trade in goods was higher in the first seven months of this year (exports rose by 2.4% and imports by 2.7%) and the high year-on-year growth in exports (16.7%) and imports (7.3%) in July was largely due to last year's low base and the higher number of working days. Weak growth in economic activity in Slovenia’s main trading partners continued to weigh on sentiment and expectations in export-oriented activities, as expectations for export orders remained very low in August.