Charts of the Week


Charts of the Week

Charts of the week from 14 to 18 October 2024: number of persons in employment, activity in construction, current account of the balance of payments and other charts

The number of persons in employment rose slightly in August (seasonally adjusted), though year-on-year growth was slightly below the average for the first seven months. Construction activity, which has declined markedly this year, was 17% lower year-on-year in August. The surplus of the current account of the balance of payments remained high in August. Electricity consumption in the distribution network was again higher year-on-year in September, mainly due to the effects of last year’s low base as a consequence of floods and their impact on production processes in certain companies. In the second quarter of 2024, the volume of road freight transport remained unchanged from the first quarter, while rail transport volume increased again.
 

The number of persons in employment rose slightly in August (seasonally adjusted), with year-on-year growth (1.1%) slightly below the average for the first seven months. Employment remained higher in August than at the end of last year, as this year’s acceleration of year-on-year growth is largely due to a change in the definition of persons in employment at the beginning of the year, which now includes workers posted abroad.  In August, growth in the number of persons in employment was again strongest in construction, which is facing a severe labour shortage, further impacted by the aforementioned change in definition. As has been the case for the past year, the year-on-year increase in the overall number of persons in employment was driven by a rise in the number of employed foreign nationals, while the number of employed Slovenian citizens fell. The share of foreign citizens among all persons in employment was 15.8% in August, 1.2 p.p. higher than a year earlier. The activities with the highest shares of foreign workers were construction (50%), transportation and storage (34%), and administrative and support service activities (28%).

 

According to data on the value of construction work put in place, construction activity further decreased in August and was still lower than in the same month last year. Following strong construction activity in 2023, the value of work put in place has fallen sharply this year. In August, it was 17% lower year-on-year, and in the first eight months combined, it was down by 9%. The sharpest year-on-year decline was recorded in the construction of buildings (-13%) and civil engineering (-12%), while specialised construction activities recorded the smallest decline (-5%). 
This lower activity was (among other things) related to government investment activity. Capital expenditure (according to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts) was similar in the first eight months of this year as in the same period last year (-4%). However, spending on new buildings, reconstructions and adaptations – areas most closely tied to construction activity – was 26% lower.

 

The 12-month current account surplus increased compared to the previous 12-month period, reaching EUR 3.2 billion (4.8% of estimated GDP). This growth was primarily driven by a trade surplus with non-EU countries, largely due to a significant decline in imports from the Russian Federation. Both primary and secondary income also contributed to the higher current account surplus. The primary income deficit was lower year-on-year mainly due to lower net outflows from dividends and profits and higher net interest receipts from abroad. The secondary income deficit was lower thanks to higher net positive transfers to the government sector from abroad and higher private sector transfers. However, the services surplus in the last 12 months was lower year-on-year, due to lower surplus in travel services. The increase in expenditure by Slovenian tourists abroad was significantly higher (by EUR 0.4 billion) than the rise in income from foreign tourists visiting Slovenia (by EUR 0.1 billion).

 

In September, electricity consumption in the distribution network was higher year-on-year. With the same number of working days, industrial consumption in September was 2.3% higher year-on-year, partly due to the low base effect from last year as a result of the floods and their impact on the production processes of some companies. In September, small business consumption  decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, which was also the same percentage by which household consumption increased.

 

In the second quarter of 2024, the volume of road freight transport remained unchanged, while the volume of rail transport continued to increase. With the total volume of road transport performed by Slovenian vehicles remaining unchanged, cross-trade increased again, up by almost 4%, while road traffic performed at least partially on Slovenian territory (exports, imports and national transport) recorded a decline. The volume of road goods transport fell by 5% year-on-year and almost 14% compared to the second quarter of 2019. In this longer-term comparison, cross-trade has declined by as much as a third. Despite some improvement in the first two quarters of this year, its share of total transport remains below 45%, almost 6 p.p. lower than before the COVID-19 epidemic. Rail freight transport, which had increased sharply at the end of last year, initially fell this year but rose again in the second quarter of 2024. It also increased year-on-year, by 5%, though it remained 4% lower than in the same quarter of 2019.